Pregnancy Chances: A Guide for Women Facing Delays

Probability of Pregnancy

The last menstrual period started on June 24.
There was sexual intercourse the following day, but no ejaculation occurred.
Based on an average menstrual cycle of 32 days, menstruation was expected to start on July 26, but it is now 20 days late.
Pregnancy tests on August 3 and 4 were negative.
On August 7, I visited a doctor, and the test was still negative.
On the evening of August 15, I took another pregnancy test, which was also negative.
On August 16, I saw a second doctor who performed an ultrasound and noted that the endometrial thickness was approximately 1.8 cm.
The pregnancy test was negative again, and I received an injection.
I would like to inquire about the chances of pregnancy.

Niming, 20~29 year old female. Ask Date: 2017/08/16

Dr. Huang Jianzhong reply Obstetrics and Gynecology

The last menstrual period was on June 24.
Sexual intercourse occurred the following day without ejaculation.
Based on an average menstrual cycle of 32 days, menstruation was expected around July 26, but it is now 20 days late.
Pregnancy tests on August 3 and 4 were negative.
On August 7, the first visit to the doctor was made, and there was still no pregnancy.
On the evening of August 15, another pregnancy test was negative.
On August 16, a second visit to the doctor included an ultrasound, where the doctor noted that the endometrium was approximately 1.8 cm, and the pregnancy test was also negative.
An injection was administered.
I would like to inquire about the likelihood of pregnancy...
Answer: The likelihood of pregnancy is close to zero.

Reply Date: 2017/08/16

More Info

When it comes to understanding the chances of pregnancy, especially in the context of delayed menstruation, several factors need to be considered. Based on the information provided, your last menstrual period (LMP) was on June 24, and you had unprotected sexual intercourse shortly after. Your menstrual cycle averages 32 days, which means you would typically expect your next period around July 26. However, you are now 20 days late, and multiple pregnancy tests have returned negative results.

Firstly, it’s important to understand that a missed period can be caused by various factors beyond pregnancy, including hormonal imbalances, stress, changes in weight, or underlying medical conditions. In your case, the negative pregnancy tests suggest that pregnancy is unlikely, especially since you have taken multiple tests and consulted with a healthcare provider.

The fact that you had an ultrasound and your doctor noted that your endometrial lining is approximately 1.8 cm is also significant. A thickened endometrial lining can indicate that your body is preparing for a menstrual cycle, but it can also be a sign of other conditions, such as hormonal imbalances or even early pregnancy, although the latter seems less likely given your negative tests.

Regarding your concerns about the chances of pregnancy, it’s essential to remember that while the likelihood of conception is lower without ejaculation inside the vagina, it is still possible. Pre-ejaculate fluid can contain sperm, and if it comes into contact with the vaginal canal, there is a small risk of pregnancy. However, given your negative pregnancy tests and the timing of your cycle, the chances appear to be minimal.

If you are experiencing significant anxiety about your situation, it is advisable to follow up with your healthcare provider. They may recommend further testing, such as blood tests to measure hormone levels, which can provide more definitive answers regarding your hormonal status and potential pregnancy. Additionally, they can help rule out other causes of your delayed menstruation, such as polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), thyroid issues, or other reproductive health concerns.

In summary, while the chances of pregnancy seem low given your negative tests and the timing of your cycle, it is crucial to continue monitoring your symptoms and consult with your healthcare provider for further evaluation. They can provide personalized advice and support to help you understand your reproductive health better. If you are not planning to conceive, discussing effective contraceptive methods with your doctor would also be beneficial to prevent unintended pregnancies in the future.

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