Pregnancy Chances and Timing for Accurate Testing - Obstetrics and Gynecology

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Probability of Pregnancy


Hello Doctor: My last menstrual period started on July 8th (my usual cycle is around 35 days, occasionally extending to about 40 days, but the period on July 8th came after only 27 days).
I had intercourse on August 2nd (with withdrawal method), and as of today, August 13th, my period has not arrived.
I took a pregnancy test on the same day, and the result showed that I am not pregnant.
What is the likelihood of pregnancy in this situation? Additionally, when should I take another pregnancy test to confirm whether or not I am pregnant? Furthermore, if my last menstrual period was early, will my next ovulation also occur earlier, or will it follow the original cycle? Thank you.

t, 20~29 year old female. Ask Date: 2018/08/13

Dr. Cao Guotao reply Obstetrics and Gynecology


Hello, a pregnancy test should be taken at least 12 days after conception for accurate results.
The chances of pregnancy are low, so it is advisable to use contraception beforehand.
If your period is more than a week late, it is recommended to see a gynecologist.
Wishing you good health.

Reply Date: 2018/08/13

More Info


When it comes to understanding the chances of pregnancy and the timing for accurate testing, several factors come into play, including the timing of ovulation, the method of contraception used, and the regularity of menstrual cycles.

Based on your description, your last menstrual period (LMP) was on July 8, and you had sexual intercourse on August 2 using the withdrawal method (also known as "pulling out"). Since your menstrual cycle typically ranges from 35 to 40 days, the average ovulation would occur around 21 days after your last period, which would be approximately July 29 to August 7. Given that you had intercourse on August 2, this timing falls within your fertile window, which could increase the chances of pregnancy.

However, the withdrawal method is not a foolproof form of contraception. While it can reduce the likelihood of pregnancy, it does not eliminate it entirely. Pre-ejaculate fluid can contain sperm, and if any sperm is released before withdrawal, there is a possibility of pregnancy.
You mentioned that your period has not yet arrived as of August 13, which is concerning given your typical cycle length. Since you have already taken a pregnancy test and it came back negative, it is essential to consider when to retest. The best time to take a pregnancy test is typically one week after your missed period. In your case, if your period does not arrive by August 15, you should consider retesting around August 15 to August 22 for more accurate results. This is because it takes time for the hormone hCG (human chorionic gonadotropin) to build up in your urine after conception, and testing too early may result in a false negative.

Regarding your question about whether an early period affects the timing of your next ovulation, it is important to note that menstrual cycles can vary. If your last period came earlier than usual, it might indicate a shorter cycle this time. However, ovulation can still occur around the same time relative to your cycle length. For example, if your cycle is typically 35 days, ovulation would generally occur around day 21. If your cycle is shorter this time, ovulation may also occur earlier.
In summary, while there is a possibility of pregnancy given the timing of your intercourse, the negative pregnancy test suggests that you may not be pregnant. It is advisable to wait a few more days and retest if your period does not arrive. Additionally, keep track of your menstrual cycles, as variations can occur, and this may affect your ovulation timing in future cycles. If you continue to experience irregularities in your menstrual cycle or have concerns about potential pregnancy, consulting a healthcare provider would be beneficial for further evaluation and guidance.

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