Ovulation and Pregnancy Chances: Your Questions Answered - Obstetrics and Gynecology

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Chance of conception


Hello Doctor: My menstrual cycle is around 29-33 days.
My last two periods were from 8/17 to 8/21 and from 9/20 to 9/25.
Recently, my basal body temperature readings are as follows: 10/2 - 35.94, 10/3 - 36.04, with abundant clear discharge and good stretchability; 10/4 - 36.02; 10/5 - 35.96; 10/6 - 36.50; 10/7 - 35.96; 10/8 - 36.07; 10/9 - forgot to measure; 10/10 - 36.48.
I would like to ask you: 1.
Is the ovulation day around 10/7? 2.
On 10/10, there was sexual intercourse, but there was no ejaculation inside, and the vagina was not very wet.
What is the likelihood of pregnancy in this case? 3.
Following up, after withdrawal, there was a white discharge.
Is this cervical mucus, or could it possibly be a small amount of sperm from pre-ejaculate? Thank you, Doctor!

Lin, 20~29 year old female. Ask Date: 2022/10/11

Dr. Cao Guotao reply Obstetrics and Gynecology


Hello, October 7 could be the ovulation day, and there was sexual intercourse on October 10.
It is recommended to take emergency contraception just in case.
Wishing you good health.

Reply Date: 2022/10/11

More Info


Understanding ovulation and the chances of pregnancy can be quite complex, especially when considering individual variations in menstrual cycles and physiological responses. Based on the information you've provided, let's break down your questions and provide a comprehensive understanding.

1. Ovulation Timing: Given your menstrual cycle length of 29-33 days, ovulation typically occurs around 14 days before the start of your next period. Since your last menstrual period started on September 20 and lasted until September 25, you would likely ovulate around October 5 to October 7. Your basal body temperature (BBT) readings indicate a slight increase on October 10, which is consistent with post-ovulation temperatures. The presence of clear, stretchy cervical mucus on October 3 is also a strong indicator of approaching ovulation, suggesting that October 7 is a reasonable estimate for your ovulation date.

2. Chances of Pregnancy: Engaging in sexual intercourse on October 10, especially if it was not followed by ejaculation, does lower the chances of conception. However, it is important to note that pre-ejaculate fluid (pre-cum) can contain sperm, albeit in smaller quantities. If there was any contact with pre-ejaculate, there is a possibility of sperm being present. The likelihood of pregnancy is generally higher when intercourse occurs in the days leading up to and including the day of ovulation. Since you mentioned that there was no internal ejaculation and the vaginal environment was not very moist, the chances of pregnancy are relatively low, but not impossible.

3. Discharge After Intercourse: The white discharge you observed after intercourse could be a combination of several factors. It may be cervical mucus, which can change in consistency and amount throughout the menstrual cycle, especially around ovulation. Alternatively, it could also be a small amount of pre-ejaculate fluid. If the discharge is thick and white, it is more likely to be cervical mucus, which is normal. If you notice any unusual changes in color, odor, or consistency, it may be worth consulting a healthcare provider.


Additional Considerations
- Understanding Your Cycle: Tracking your menstrual cycle, BBT, and cervical mucus can provide valuable insights into your ovulation patterns. This information can help you identify your fertile window more accurately, increasing your chances of conception.

- Fertility Awareness: If you are trying to conceive, consider using ovulation predictor kits (OPKs) in conjunction with your BBT charting. OPKs can help detect the surge in luteinizing hormone (LH) that occurs just before ovulation, providing a clearer indication of your most fertile days.

- Consulting a Healthcare Provider: If you have concerns about your menstrual cycle, ovulation, or fertility, it may be beneficial to consult with a healthcare provider or a fertility specialist. They can offer personalized advice and may recommend further testing if necessary.

- Healthy Lifestyle: Maintaining a healthy lifestyle, including a balanced diet, regular exercise, and managing stress, can positively impact your reproductive health. Additionally, consider taking prenatal vitamins, particularly folic acid, if you are planning to conceive.

In summary, while your estimated ovulation date is around October 7, the chances of pregnancy from intercourse on October 10 are relatively low, especially without internal ejaculation. Monitoring your cycle and understanding your body can empower you in your journey toward conception. If you have further questions or concerns, don't hesitate to reach out for professional guidance.

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