What's the Risk of Pregnancy After Unprotected Intercourse?

Can I get pregnant?

Your girlfriend has a regular menstrual cycle of 27 days and her period started on March 14.
You had unprotected intercourse on March 16, but you did not ejaculate.
Initially, you were using a condom, but it broke, and you had unprotected penetration for a few thrusts before withdrawing.
Her next expected period is around April 7 or 8.
You are concerned about the possibility of pregnancy, especially since you have broken up with her.

Given that she was in the middle of her menstrual cycle when you had unprotected intercourse, the likelihood of pregnancy is relatively low, but not impossible.
Sperm can survive in the female reproductive tract for several days, and if she ovulated shortly after your encounter, there is a chance of conception.
It is advisable for her to take a home pregnancy test if her period is late or to consult a healthcare provider for further evaluation.

Mr. Chen, 10~19 year old female. Ask Date: 2019/04/02

Dr. Huang Jianzhong reply Obstetrics and Gynecology

Your girlfriend has a regular menstrual cycle of 27 days, with her period lasting six days.
Her last period started on March 14.
On March 16, we had unprotected intercourse, but I did not ejaculate.
Initially, we used a condom, but it broke, and there was brief unprotected penetration for a couple of thrusts before I withdrew.
This was impulsive, and her next expected period is around April 7 or 8.
However, we have since broken up, and I am concerned about the possibility of pregnancy.
Doctor, is the likelihood of pregnancy high?
Answer: The chances of pregnancy from brief unprotected penetration with withdrawal are low.

Reply Date: 2019/04/02

More Info

When it comes to the risk of pregnancy after unprotected intercourse, several factors must be considered to assess the likelihood of conception. In your case, since your girlfriend has a regular menstrual cycle of 27 days and her last period started on March 14, it is essential to understand the timing of ovulation, which typically occurs around 14 days before the start of the next period. This means that ovulation would likely occur around March 31, making the days leading up to and including that date the most fertile period.

Having unprotected intercourse on March 16, which is just a few days before the expected ovulation date, does pose a risk for pregnancy. Even though you mentioned that there was no ejaculation inside, pre-ejaculate fluid (pre-cum) can contain sperm, and thus, there is still a possibility of pregnancy. The withdrawal method, which you described as pulling out before ejaculation, is not a reliable form of contraception, as it requires perfect timing and control, which can be difficult to achieve.

Given that your girlfriend's next expected period is around April 7 or 8, if she does not get her period, it would be advisable for her to take a home pregnancy test. These tests are generally accurate if taken after a missed period. If the test is positive, she should consult a healthcare provider for further evaluation and options.

In terms of the probability of pregnancy, studies suggest that the chance of conception from unprotected intercourse during the fertile window can be as high as 20-30% per cycle. However, this percentage can vary based on individual factors such as age, health, and fertility status.

It's also important to consider the emotional and psychological aspects of this situation, especially since you mentioned that you and your girlfriend have broken up. Open communication about the potential outcomes and responsibilities is crucial. If she does become pregnant, both partners will need to discuss the next steps, whether that involves parenting, adoption, or other options.

In summary, while the risk of pregnancy is present due to the timing of unprotected intercourse, the actual likelihood can only be confirmed through a pregnancy test after the expected period. Encourage your ex-girlfriend to monitor her cycle and take appropriate action based on the results of the test. If she has any concerns or experiences unusual symptoms, she should seek medical advice promptly.

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