the Risk of Cervical Cancer: What Do the Numbers Really Mean? - Obstetrics and Gynecology

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Is a probability of 35 in 100,000 inclusive of precancerous lesions and cancer?


Hello Doctor, I would like to ask a few more questions.
Thank you, Doctor, I appreciate your help.

1.
Do you think the statement that for every 70 cases of cervical cytology screening, there is 1 person with precancerous lesions or cancer is accurate? If that’s the case, the probability seems quite high, which would mean many people are getting sick.
Is it really that alarming?
2.
You mentioned that in recent years, there are approximately 5,000 cases, with a probability of about 35 per 100,000.
Does this data include precancerous lesions such as CIN1, CIN2, CIN3, cervical carcinoma in situ, and invasive cervical cancer?
For context, I am asking these questions because I have anxiety and a fear of cervical cancer.
Please help clarify these concerns.
Thank you.

1.
How many people approximately develop cervical cancer precursors in stages 1-2 each year? Or what is the general probability of someone getting CIN1 or CIN2?
2.
Additionally, the health department provides two different statements: one says that for every 70 cases of cervical cytology screening, there is 1 person with precancerous lesions or cancer.
The other states that among every 70 positive cytology cases, there is 1 person with precancerous lesions or cancer.
These two statements differ significantly; which one do you think is more accurate?
Dear Inquirer: In recent years, there are approximately 5,000 cases, with a probability of about 35 per 100,000.
The first statement is more accurate.
Thank you! Wishing you peace and health, Dr.
Zhang.

vicky, 30~39 year old female. Ask Date: 2022/06/14

Dr. Zhang Kunmin reply Obstetrics and Gynecology


Hello, the majority of women with precancerous changes do not progress to cancer, which includes CIN I and CIN II.
The standardized incidence rate of cervical carcinoma in situ is approximately 36.0 per 100,000 (2,673 individuals), while the standardized incidence rate of invasive cervical cancer is about 15.4 per 100,000 (1,406 individuals).
Thank you! Wishing you peace and health.
Dr.
Zhang

Reply Date: 2022/06/14

More Info


Understanding the risk of cervical cancer can indeed be a source of anxiety, especially for those who are already dealing with anxiety disorders. It's important to clarify the statistics and the context behind them to alleviate some of that fear.

1. Understanding the Statistics: The statement that "for every 70 women who undergo cervical smear tests, 1 will have a precancerous lesion or cancer" is a general estimate that reflects the prevalence of cervical abnormalities in the population. This means that while it may sound alarming, it does not imply that one in every 70 women will develop cervical cancer. Instead, it indicates that there is a significant number of women who may show abnormal results that require further investigation. The actual risk of developing cervical cancer from these precancerous lesions (CIN1, CIN2, CIN3) varies. CIN1 is often monitored and may resolve on its own, while CIN2 and CIN3 have a higher risk of progressing to cancer if left untreated.
2. Clarifying the Numbers: The figure of approximately 5,000 cases of cervical cancer or precancerous lesions per year, with a risk of about 35 in 100,000, includes all stages of cervical abnormalities, including CIN1, CIN2, CIN3, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and invasive cervical cancer. This means that while the numbers may seem high, they represent a wide spectrum of conditions, many of which are not cancerous and can be managed effectively with regular screening and follow-up.

3. The Importance of Screening: Regular cervical cancer screening (Pap smears and HPV testing) is crucial because it allows for early detection of precancerous changes. The earlier these changes are identified, the more effective the treatment options are, and the lower the risk of progression to cervical cancer. The majority of women who receive a diagnosis of CIN1 will not develop cervical cancer, especially with appropriate monitoring and treatment.

4. Addressing Anxiety: It's understandable to feel anxious about these statistics, but it's important to remember that most women who undergo screening will not develop cervical cancer. The healthcare system is designed to catch these abnormalities early, and there are effective treatments available. If you are experiencing significant anxiety, it may be beneficial to discuss this with a mental health professional who can provide strategies to manage these feelings.

5. Conclusion: In summary, while the statistics regarding cervical cancer and its precursors can seem daunting, they reflect a broader context of screening and prevention. The majority of women with abnormal results do not go on to develop cancer, especially with regular monitoring and treatment. If you have concerns about your health or the implications of your screening results, it is always best to discuss these with your healthcare provider, who can provide personalized advice and reassurance based on your individual circumstances. Regular follow-ups and open communication with your healthcare team are key to managing both your physical health and your anxiety.

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