Your Chances of Conception This Month - Obstetrics and Gynecology

Probability of conception

Hello, I would like to ask about my chances of conception this month.
My menstrual period started on December 2nd, and I had intercourse on the 14th to 16th.
My menstrual cycle is approximately 28 to 31 days.
What are my chances of conceiving this month? Additionally, I have been experiencing some pain on both sides of my lower abdomen over the past two days.
Am I still in my ovulation period? If I have intercourse again in the next two days, will it increase my chances of conception? Thank you.

Chen, 30~39 year old female. Ask Date: 2012/12/19

Dr. Lin Wenbin reply Obstetrics and Gynecology

Relying solely on the menstrual cycle to estimate ovulation may not be accurate.
It is still necessary to visit a clinic for an ultrasound to monitor follicular growth, supplemented by ovulation test strips or basal body temperature measurements to accurately determine the ovulation date.

Reply Date: 2012/12/19

More Info

Understanding your chances of conception involves a few key factors, including your menstrual cycle, ovulation timing, and any symptoms you may be experiencing. Based on the information you provided, let's break this down.

Your menstrual cycle is approximately 28-31 days, and you mentioned that your last period started on December 2nd. Typically, ovulation occurs about 14 days before your next period. If we assume a 28-day cycle, ovulation would likely occur around December 16th. If your cycle is longer, say 31 days, ovulation might occur around December 17th or 18th.
You indicated that you had intercourse on December 14-16, which places you right around your ovulation window. This is significant because the days leading up to and including ovulation are when you are most fertile. Sperm can live inside the female reproductive tract for up to five days, so having intercourse in the days leading up to ovulation can increase your chances of conception.

Regarding the discomfort you are experiencing in your lower abdomen, it could be related to ovulation. Some women experience a phenomenon known as "mittelschmerz," which is a mild pain or discomfort that occurs during ovulation. This pain can vary in intensity and is typically felt on one side of the abdomen, depending on which ovary is releasing an egg. If you are experiencing this pain around the time you expect to ovulate, it could indeed indicate that you are still in your ovulation period.

If you have intercourse again in the next couple of days, it could further increase your chances of conception, especially if you are still within your fertile window. The fertile window typically spans from about five days before ovulation to one day after ovulation. Therefore, continuing to have intercourse during this time can enhance your chances of becoming pregnant.

In summary, based on your cycle and the timing of your intercourse, you have a reasonable chance of conception this month. The discomfort you are feeling may be related to ovulation, suggesting that you are in a fertile period. If you continue to have intercourse in the next few days, it could further increase your chances of conceiving.
For a more accurate assessment of your fertility and to track ovulation more precisely, consider using ovulation predictor kits or tracking basal body temperature. If you have concerns about your menstrual cycle or fertility, consulting with a healthcare provider or a fertility specialist can provide personalized guidance and support.

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